Bottom line
Break-even on product, and probably underwater once real costs land.
Revenue, the cash cost of free goods, and what is left
monthly, dollarsWhat if we add the costs these files don't show?
These exports have product cost only. They contain no TikTok ad spend, creator or affiliate commissions, shipping, or platform fees. Drag to assume those all-in costs as a share of paid revenue and watch the dashed line, and the last full month, move.
Trend
Month over month
The channel scaled hard into November 2025, then unwound. Pick a metric to trace it, then read the table for the month over month change.
| Month | Paid orders | Free orders | % free | Revenue | MoM rev | Net margin | Free cash cost | Free cost / GP |
|---|
Reading it: % free is the share of all orders shipped that went out at $0.00. Free cost / GP is the actual cash cost of free goods as a share of that month's paid gross profit. When it climbs toward 100%, the giveaways are eating the whole margin. Jul 2026 is a partial month.
Same month, different year
Year over year
2025 was explosive growth off a tiny 2024 base. 2026 started ahead of 2025 on revenue, then crossed below by summer as paid demand faded.
| Period | Months | Paid revenue | Net product margin | Free retail value | Free cash cost |
|---|
2024 covers Oct to Dec only, and 2026 covers Jan to Jul (Jul partial), so annual totals are not full-year comparable. The year over year percentages above use only the calendar months present in both years.